A bioeconomic approach to assess the impact of an alien invasive insect on timber supply and harvesting: a case study with Sirex noctilio in eastern Canada
Abstract
This study presents a model that assesses the potential impact of a new alien insect species, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, on pine timber supply and harvest activities in eastern Canada. We integrate the spread of S. noctilio with a broad-scale growth and harvest allocation model. Projections of pine mortality range between 25 × 10 6 and 115 × 10 6 m 3 over 20 years depending on S. noctilio spread and impact assumptions. Our model suggests Ontario could experience the highest, most immediate losses (78% of the potential losses across eastern Canada), with Quebec sustaining most of the rest of the losses over the next 20 years. Potential losses of $86 to $254 million per year are simulated after 20 years. The net present value of total harvest losses after 28 years of outbreak ranges between $0.7 to $2.1 billion. Adaptation policies decrease short-term losses by 46%–55% and delay larger harvest failures by 9–11 years. Without harvest adaptation, failures to maintain annual allowable cut levels may occur once the total area infested exceeds 15 × 10 6 ha. While better understanding and representing S. noctilio behaviour will involve a significant effort, there is a strong demand by policy makers for this kind of information.
Reference
Denys Yemshanov; Daniel W. McKenney; Peter de Groot; Dennis Haugen; Derek Sidders; Brent Joss. (2009). A bioeconomic approach to assess the impact of an alien invasive insect on timber supply and harvesting: a case study with Sirex noctilio in eastern Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. https://doi.org/10.1139/x08-164
Explore the literature
Follow references, discover citing works and find related studies.