Structural Changes in the Global Maritime Trade Network of Wood and Paper Productsand Its Responses to Supply Shocks
Abstract
This study examines long-run structural changes in the global maritime trade network of wood and paper products and estimates the relative change in Russia-origin maritime flows after the composite shock of 2022. Using S&P Global GTAS data for 2005-2024, we construct a directed and weighted network covering 240 countries and 29,625 country pairs; the route-level panel analysis is limited to 2014-2024. PageRank concentration declined from 0.1821 in 2017 to 0.1187 in 2024, while modularity rose from 0.183 in 2020 to 0.245 in 2024. These descriptive movements are consistent with the weakening of China's import position and the growing roles of medium-sized importers, but they should be treated as provisional because no formal structural-break test is reported. DiD-PPML estimates show that Russia-origin maritime volumes were 33.9-38.5 percent lower relative to comparison routes, with event-study estimates of -27.3 percent in 2022 and -47.9 percent in 2024. Russia's export restrictions varied by product and destination and overlapped with war, sanctions, payment, insurance, exchange-rate, and logistics disruptions. Accordingly, the estimates are interpreted as reduced-form associations with a composite Russia-origin shock, not as the isolated causal effect of a single policy. The study documents changes in network concentration and regionalization and identifies the need for product-destination treatment coding and exporter-level inference in future research.
Reference
Korean Academy Of International Commerce, Inc.; Min-soo Cheon. (2026). Structural Changes in the Global Maritime Trade Network of Wood and Paper Productsand Its Responses to Supply Shocks. Korean Academy Of International Commerce. https://doi.org/10.18104/kalc.2026.41.3.155
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